Could a rare ‘Double El Niño’ lead to record high temperatures in B.C.?
Source: Global News WATCH: Some climatologists say 2015 could be in for a double El Niño year. Ted Chernecki reports on what that could mean for us. A rare “double El Niño” could be upon us, bringing record high temperatures with it. El Niño is the equatorial body of warm water that oscillates between South America and Australasia, influencing weather patterns worldwide. A double El Niño occurs when warm water gathers in the ocean two years in a row. This year’s event appears to have stalled in the mid-Pacific and is believed to be largely responsible for a series of typhoons to hit Hawaii and the South Pacific, yet leaving the B.C. coast with a storm-reduced winter and warm weather. “What developed was sort of an almost Niño,” says Simon Donner, a climate scientist in UBC’s Department of Geography. “It didn’t quite develop as much as expected coming into December.”
Is Geoengineering Pushing Us Into Climate Chaos?
By William Thomas, contributing writer for geoengineeringwatch.org The short answer is yes. Here's how… Start with something dynamic, like the weather and its increasing propensity toward sudden, drastic and lingering surprises. As the geologic record of mass extinctions repeatedly shows, if pushed too far by various atmospheric forcings (like mass methane releases or meltwater shutdowns of ocean circulations), the longer-term weather patterns we call climate can change drastically, for a very long time, within a decade. Or a year. Geoengineers understand that complex weather behaviour emerges from a few simple initial conditions. Change those conditions along a broad atmospheric front by deploying aerial refuelling tankers to spread particles that accrete moisture and scatter incoming sunlight, absorb energy from ionospheric heaters like HAARP, or rapidly cool air masses by dispensing ice-nucleating chemicals like an airborne flash-mob – and you change the heat balance of that airspace and thus the resulting weather. Do this repeatedly, spreading megatons of atmospheric-forcing particulates behind hundreds of heavy aircraft for many years and even climate can be altered. But which way will it jump? If the flapping of a butterfly's wings can randomly influence the course of a distant hurricane, consider an air force “wing” of 72 jet tankers, each spreading 200,000 pounds of aerosol particles one-tenth the diameter of a human hair along a flight path traversing thousands of miles. With our compounding emissions already hurrying heat and humidity in some places to the edge of liveable limits, geoengineering is the unwelcome bully that threatens to jerk the trigger on looming Abrupt Climate Shift. (Geoengineering aerosols over Belgium – above) SNAKEBITE Earth's climate system is chaotic enough to turn occasional stumbles into full-fledged flipouts. So the last thing anyone would want to do is to trigger such an upset with planeloads of monkey-wrenching aerosols. Right? To elevate such planetary roulette from blind swings at a constantly shifting atmospheric piñata to a reliably predictable science, the desired weather/climate output must be proportional to each atmospheric modification input. And the resulting atmospheric events must also react the same ways every time. That's why we call such predictable progressions, linear. But the atmosphere, like life, is so nonlinear. Nonlinear means “full of surprises”. While short-term moisture, temperature and pressure trends can presage near-term weather over a day or two, the further forecasts extend, the more variables are introduced by air masses feeding back on themselves. Other wild cards faced by the geoengineers include heat-trapping gases accumulated over the past 200 years, atmospheric and oceanic “feedbacks” like major methane burps, hyper-evaporation, warming waters and melting ice sheets, unscheduled volcanic eruptions, the fracking plague, and climax civilizations bristling with dirty stacks and exhausts – plus their own geoengineering efforts, ongoing since at least 1997, when I broke this story worldwide for Environment News Service. [Chemtrails Confirmed 2010 by William Thomas] Because changes occur in Earth's intricately-coupled biosphere simultaneously and interactively, attempting to anticipate and alter so many constantly changing conditions makes large-scale climate modification an exercise in juggling snakes. Begin with a few characteristics of the longterm weather patterns you want to change. Just seven building blocks can interact with each other one million different ways. Jump to a hundred climate-determining factors and each one will interact with the other 99, yielding 10 billion possibilities. Some outcomes are more likely than others. But this hardly precludes unpleasant nonlinear responses to deliberate planet meddling. [“Considering Complexity” by William Thomas Southwest Airlines Spirit magazine 1994] (William Thomas photos Mar. 21, 2015: above) Remember, the atmosphere is an “adaptive” participant in every geoengineering mugging, responding to each input every time with widely different outcomes. Since abrupt discontinuities are a prime feature of nonlinear systems, when attempting large-scale weather modification, unintended consequences are built-in. Like turning off the African and Asian monsoons on which many billions of not-just-human lives depend. [20 Reasons Why Geoengineering May Be A Bad Idea] WE'RE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER BUT SOME MORE THAN OTHERS Every pound of heat-hugging carbon we transfer from deep underground into the air will be our climate legacy for the next hundred years. Every time we start our fourwheeled carbon burner, we're a geoengineer. Every time a commercial jet climbs into the stratosphere, all onboard are geo-engineers. Ditto all those power plants pumping trainloads of burnt coal into the sky. The big difference is, it's your choice whether to turn the key, board that plane, or join a grassroots group demanding clean energy. As for your input into whether those jets overhead continue dimming the sun – not so much. The result of all this inadvertent and deliberate atmospheric forcing is climate chaos. “Chaotic” means “unpredictable”. Punch-drunk by our ever-accumulating heat-trapping exhausts, at least 17 years of concerted geoengineering efforts, a wonky jetstream, and dozens of amplifying feedbacks from thawing tundra, clearcut forests, burning forests, melting ice sheets and the expanding ocean heat reservoir (for example) – it's no wonder so much inconvenient weather is lurching across this planet. With global warming causing more global warming, how do increasingly destabilized weather systems respond to deliberate further prodding by targeted laydowns of particulates powerful enough to disrupt air masses and soak up residual moisture like a sponge? Nobody knows. The atmospheric predictions produced by our best supercomputers crunching incomplete data that ignores climate feedbacks and geoengineering are falling further behind the alarming headlines resulting from a churning complexity that is ultimately unknowable. Given all the still-ignored feedbacks we've set in motion, most notably geoengineering, it's not surprising that climate changes continue to outpace our models. Any climate activist or “scientist” who continues to ignore these well-documented aerosol assaults is working with fatally flawed data. (Aerosols & contrail over Ontario -Jim Beck photo: above) But “gross” geoengineering outcomes can be observed. There is no question that Solar Radiation Mismanagement (SRM) by allied governments is contributing significantly to the Great Drying, which may soon segue into the Great Dying. This is why the authors who studied Mount Pinatubo's eruption do not support geoengineering. “Creating a risk of